multistrikevideopokerfree| Industrial silicon surged sharply this week. Have the fundamentals changed?

Source: Yide Binhai Coal team

multistrikevideopokerfree| Industrial silicon surged sharply this week. Have the fundamentals changed?

Authors: Zhang Haiduan / F3048149, Z0015532 /

Industrial silicon futures have risen one after another this week.MultistrikevideopokerfreeThe contract of 07, the main force, rose by 4% on Friday.Multistrikevideopokerfree.41%, the highest price is close to the daily limit price, but the fundamentals of the industry have not improved.MultistrikevideopokerfreeAccording to some related news or rumors, there are mainly the following aspects:

According to relevant reports on the 1st and 21st, on the afternoon of May 17, under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a "Symposium on High-quality Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" in Beijing, which pointed out that the industry should be encouraged to merge and reorganize, smooth the market exit mechanism, and strengthen the crackdown on vicious competition in sales below cost prices. (more industry initiatives)

2. It is rumored that Chinese manufacturers have won the largest share of Saudi photovoltaic projects. (it has not been confirmed that Saudi Arabia intends to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the development of green energy, and the demand for photovoltaic has indeed increased since 2023. According to customs data, China's exports of Saudi photovoltaic components accounted for 3% of the total export volume in 2023.Multistrikevideopokerfree.22%, the share is increasing, but Saudi Arabia's new future city is a longer-term plan, the follow-up progress still needs to be watched, and the short-term impact is limited. )

3. Low price valuation, strong drive of other non-ferrous varieties, capital layout, tight storage capacity of hype and so on. (after the market fell below 12000 yuan / ton, the problem of low valuation has been mentioned all the time, and there are also some differences among investors, some of which have made a short-term rebound, but putting aside the basic weakness, it seems far-fetched to simply do low valuation to pull the noodles. For storage capacity, it is difficult to digest the flow of existing warehouse receipts, and after the futures rise, new hedging and cash arbitrage enter the market, warehouse receipts are further increasing, storage capacity is indeed a little tight, but some warehouse applications for capacity expansion have been approved. )

4. Power system reform (electricity reform has long been proposed that the promotion of marketization is a long-term process, and the short-term impact is limited. Some people see that it is an one-sided association with the fluctuation of electricity prices. )

The above news has indeed given a boost to market sentiment, but it is still logically far-fetched to explain the sharp rise in market prices, and we have not found a more reasonable view to explain the rising behavior of capital. From the point of view of the supply and demand pattern, the fundamentals are still weak and do not support the upward price. in terms of supply, the output in the northwest remains high, the southwest gradually enters a period of flat water and abundant water, the willingness of silicon enterprises to resume production is enhanced, and the subsequent start-up rate is further determined. while the main downstream polycrystalline photovoltaic industry as a whole entered a loss situation, polysilicon manufacturers began to overhaul and reduce production in May, but from the inventory point of view, it is still in the base warehouse. Inventory pressure is huge, the situation has not been alleviated, silicon material price pressure continues to fall, followed by more manufacturers may enter the production reduction, enterprises for the purchase of raw material silicon powder silicon continue to reduce prices. The overall inventory of industrial silicon is also high and will continue to base this week. The sharp rise in the market is divorced from the fundamentals, driven by the strong futures, manufacturers hedging and spot merchants buying period arbitrage may pull the spot short-term rise, but in the fundamentals have not changed, it is expected that this rise is difficult to maintain for a long time, the subsequent warehouse receipt accumulation pressure will also be greater, temporarily cautious operation.

Audit: Zeng Xiang / F0307622, Z0003110 /

Report completion date: 26 May 2024

Futures Investment Consulting qualification: Securities Regulatory Commission license [2012] No. 38


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